Heading into All-Star Weekend, the Thunder and Jazz players are expected to win this year’s MIP award.

It’s a three-player race for the NBA’s Most Improved Player award entering the All-Star break.

The co-favorites, Lauri Markkanen and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, were both named to the All-Star team for the first time in their careers and are tied atop the field with +125 odds. Jalen Brunson did not make the cut, but his career year has guided the Knicks to a top-six seed. He has the third-best odds to win the award at +375.

The most recent Most Improved Player winner came with some level of controversy. Ja Morant, the former No. 2 pick and Rookie of the Year, earned the honor a season ago for his leap from Year 2 to Year 3. There was belief among some that he was already established as a star and therefore ineligible or perhaps even above the award (even Morant gave the trophy to teammate Desmond Bane).

There should be no such issue with this year’s top contenders.

Erik Williams/USA TODAY Sports

Gilgeous-Alexander does already have two seasons in which he averaged 20-plus points per game on his resume, but he played in less than 60% of the Thunder’s games over those two years and they finished second-to-last in the West both times. His drastic scoring leap from 24.5 points per game to 30.8, fifth-best in the NBA, is similar to the jump Morant made, but perhaps even more impressive because SGA was already a top-20 scorer the previous season.

He is matching a career-best 50.8 field goal percentage despite attempting 20.1 shots per game, another career-high. He’s also attempting 10.5 free throws per game, fourth-most in the league, and he’s hitting better than 91% of his attempts from the stripe.

Oklahoma City is on the cusp of a return to the playoffs for the first time since the Bubble, largely due to the play of SGA. The team currently occupies the 10th seed, the final play-in spot. Improved individual play coupled with a noticeable bump in winning has been a recipe for success for past winners.

lauri markannen jazz lead — Rob Gray/USA TODAY Sports

Markkanen was acquired by the Jazz from the Cavaliers in the Donovan Mitchell deal and has largely filled the scoring void left by the All-Star guard. After five good-but-never-great seasons in Chicago and Cleveland, Markkanen is thriving in Salt Lake City. His 24.9 points per game is a 10-point bump from last season and it’s more than six points better than his previous career-high.

He’s also experienced appreciable bumps in virtually every other statistical category: His rebounding average is up to 8.6, second-best in his career, his assist numbers have risen slightly to 1.8 per game and his shooting efficiency has exploded. He’s taking more overall shots, threes and free throws than ever before and posting career-best percentages from the field (51.2%), three (41.2%) and free-throw line (87.7%). Add all that up and Markkanen has the 12th best true-shooting percentage in the NBA, and the only non-big men he’s behind are Kevin Durant and Steph Curry. That’s pretty good company.

Markkanen will start in the All-Star game on his home floor and is set to participate in the three-point contest as well.

Utah is just behind Oklahoma City in 11th place. Many people (myself included) predicted the Jazz to be among the worst teams in the league and a seventh straight trip to the postseason during a rebuilding year is still on the table.

Though Brunson’s odds are three times as long as those of Markkanen and Gilgeous-Alexander, he’s making a very strong case that he’s been the one who’s improved the most. Brunson flashed in the 2022 playoffs with and without Luka Doncic for Dallas and he secured a sizable contract with the Knicks in free agency that some thought was an overpay at the time. It’s clear now that New York actually got a bargain.

Brunson upped his scoring average from 16.3 points per game to 23.9 and his assists rose from 4.8 per game to 6.2. His overall field-goal percentage is down a few percentage points but he’s having a career year from beyond the arc and he’s helped his teammate Julius Randle largely regain his 2020 form.

The Knicks missed the playoffs last season after ending their drought the year before. Brunson was their biggest get in the offseason, and he’s guiding them back to the postseason. New York is in sixth place in the Eastern Conference heading into the All-Star break.

Tyrese Haliburton has the next best odds after Brunson, but he’s not even in shouting distance at +4000. Before he missed substantial time, he was a serious contender for the award with an average just under 20 points per game to pair with 10 assists in his first full season with the Pacers. Missing 10 games in January—and Indiana’s corresponding slide down the standings without him—hurt his case.

2022-23 NBA Most Improved Player of the Year Odds

Lauri Markkanen +125

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander +125

Jalen Brunson +375

Tyrese Haliburton +4000

Mikal Bridges +5000

Victor Oladipo +5000

Anfernee Simons +5000

Bol Bol +5000

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