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The Northeast Conference takes the national stage with a matinee college basketball matchup on Thursday. The St. Francis Terriers visit the Spiro Sports Center to face the Wagner Seahawks in a league battle. St. Francis is 9-11 overall and 2-5 in conference play. Wagner is on a three-game winning streak, improving to 11-7 overall with a 6-2 mark at home. St. Francis is 9-9 and Wagner is 6-10 against the spread this season
Tip-off is at 5 p.m. ET in Staten Island. Caesars Sportsbook lists Wagner as a 10-point home favorite, while the over/under, or total number of points Vegas thinks will be scored, is 126.5 in the latest St. Francis vs. Wagner odds. Before you make any St. Francis vs. Wagner picks, you need to see the college basketball predictions and betting advice from SportsLine’s advanced computer simulation model.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every Division I college basketball game 10,000 times. The model enters Week 12 of the season 45-26 on all-top rated college basketball picks, returning more than $1,100 for $100 players. Anybody who has followed it has seen huge returns.
Now, the model has set its sights on St. Francis vs. Wagner and just locked in its picks and CBB predictions. You can head to SportsLine now to see the model’s picks. Now, here are several college basketball odds and betting lines for St. Francis vs. Wagner:
- St. Francis vs. Wagner spread: Wagner -10
- St. Francis vs. Wagner over/under: 126.5 points
- SF: The Terriers are 4-6 against the spread in road games
- WAG: The Seahawks are 3-3 against the spread in home games
- St. Francis vs. Wagner picks: See picks here
Why St. Francis can cover
St. Francis has intriguing defensive characteristics, including a 19.9% turnover creation rate, which includes a 10.3% steal rate for the Terriers. St. Francis is blocking 10.2% of shots while holding opponents to 48.3% shooting on 2-point attempts. Wagner is a poor shooting team, making only 44.4% of 2-point shots, 31.0% of 3-point shots, and 66.8% of free throw attempts. The Seahawks are also outside the top 300 nationally in free throw creation rate, and that boosts the projected efficiency of St. Francis.
On the offensive side, St. Francis is shooting 37.0% from 3-point range in conference games, No. 2 in the Northeast, and the Terriers are above-average in offensive rebound rate, free throw creation rate, and free throw accuracy. Given that Wagner is one of the worst teams in the country in free throw rate allowed and block rate (5.6%) on defense, St. Francis can be aggressive.
Why Wagner can cover
Wagner has an appetizing defensive matchup against St. Francis. The Seahawks are No. 2 in the Northeast Conference in adjusted defensive efficiency, and Wagner creates havoc on that end of the floor. Wagner creates a steal on 11.4% of defensive possessions and a turnover on 23.7% of defensive possessions, with opponents shooting only 30.4% from 3-point range this season. The Seahawks also secure almost 75% of available rebounds, a strongly above-average figure, and Wagner should benefit from the weaknesses of St. Francis on the offensive side.
The Terriers are dead-last in the Northeast Conference in adjusted offensive efficiency, and St. Francis commits a turnover on more than 24% of offensive possessions. St. Francis is also last in the conference in 2-point shooting (42.9%) and assist percentage, generating an assist on only 49.7% of field goals. With Wagner also facing a St. Francis defense that is second-worst in the conference in defensive efficiency, the Seahawks project to have advantages on both ends.
How to make St. Francis vs. Wagner picks
SportsLine’s model is leaning Over on the point total, with 11 players projected to score at least seven points. The model also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations. You can only see the model’s picks at SportsLine.
So who wins St. Francis vs. Wagner? And which side of the spread hits in well over 50% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to see which side of the St. Francis vs. Wagner spread you need to jump on Thursday, all from the model that has crushed its college basketball picks, and find out.
