Did you know that Travis and Jason Kelce are brothers? Did you know that Andy Reid likes cheeseburgers? What about whether or not Nick Sirianni considers the Super Bowl to be a “must-win game?” Have you heard about the great product that an NFL player is selling during his 150th radio interview promoting it? Are you going to try it?
The two-week gap between the conference championship games and the Super Bowl can seem like an interminable slog. There’s only so much hype one person can take before just wanting to get the game over with, and I reached that point roughly 10 days ago. Thankfully, the wait’s almost over, and what should be an exciting Super Bowl is almost here.
Hopefully, you’ve used the time well. Perhaps you’ve spent it figuring out ways to profit from the game. I have, and these are my favorite plays for the game. All odds courtesy of Caesars Sportsbook.
Featured Game | Philadelphia Eagles vs. Kansas City Chiefs
When I was growing up, the Super Bowl kind of sucked. Nearly every game was a blowout. From Super Bowl 24 (1990) to Super Bowl 37 (2003), only four of the 14 games finished as one-score contests and provided drama. The average margin of victory for the winners was 17.4 points per game. Things have changed pretty dramatically since then. While we still get the occasional dud, the 19 Super Bowls since have included 11 one-score games and an average margin of 9.3 points.
I expect this year’s game to be another close affair, as the Eagles and Chiefs are evenly matched. When breaking it down, I see the Eagles as the more talented team overall and the Chiefs as the team with the significant advantage at quarterback, which makes sense. When you have a QB who could prove to be an all-timer in Patrick Mahomes, you have to pay him accordingly, which impacts your ability to build a complete roster. But it’s a sacrifice you happily make for, you know, having Pat Freaking Mahomes. On the other hand, the Eagles have Jalen Hurts on a rookie deal, allowing them to fill out the roster elsewhere.
But as talented as the Eagles are, I cannot pass up betting on Patrick Mahomes as an underdog. The Eagles have been a juggernaut this season, and because of that, they haven’t had to show us that they can come back when facing a deficit. More often than not, the Eagles build a lead and then sit on it in the second half. Jalen Hurts’ deficiencies as a passer haven’t come into play often. They might in this game, though. As great as the Eagles’ defense is, Patrick Mahomes is Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs are the Chiefs. They’re going to score points, and if KC builds an early lead, I don’t know that the Eagles are built to come back. The Pick: Chiefs (+105)
Travis Kelce Over 6.5 Receptions (-184) — I suspect this will be a big Travis Kelce game. The Eagles’ pass rush is fierce, which means the Chiefs will look to get the ball out quickly, and when they do, Kelce benefits. Of course, the Eagles’ defense knows that and will scheme to take Kelce out of the equation, but that’s the funny thing about Travis Kelce. Every team tries to take him out of the equation, and nobody can. He always finds the open area. Plus, if you put too much of your defensive focus on Kelce, that’s when the Chiefs kill you over the top. That’s the dilemma of facing the Chiefs.
Patrick Mahomes Over 18.5 Rushing Yards (-119) — Mahomes suffered the high-ankle sprain against Jacksonville, and there were questions about his mobility in the AFC Championship. He was limited, but when the Chiefs absolutely needed it late in the game, Mahomes rushed and picked up a first down. During the regular season, Mahomes doesn’t rush as often but come the postseason, he routinely uses his legs as a weapon. I don’t think he’s fully healed, but considering the pressure, Philly’s defense can put on you and the stakes, we’re likely to see Mahomes take off a few times.
DeVonta Smith Over 61.5 Receiving Yards (-119) — There’s a good chance the Eagles will have to throw more in this game than usual, and Smith strikes me as a beneficiary of the matchup. A.J. Brown will always draw the most attention, but there’s also the turf in Arizona. In short, it sucks. There are always players slipping on it, and Smith’s shiftiness and precise route-running could leave some KC DBs on their butts Sunday.
Miles Sanders Under 59.5 Rushing Yards (-104) — I believe this prop opened at around 53.5 in most places and has been bet up considerably in the last couple of weeks. Well, I’m here to buy back on it. If Philly wins this game, odds are Sanders will rush for a considerable number of yards, but I don’t think the Eagles will be able to run the ball as often as they usually do because of how I see the game playing out. So that, combined with the total rising, makes this a value bet in my eyes.
Coin Toss – Tails (-101) — I just got a feeling.